Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?

Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatiotemporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1088-1 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1088-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. W. Shi (*) : F. Tao : J. Liu : X. Xu :W. Kuang Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing 100101, China e-mail: [email protected] J. Dong Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA X. Shi Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China